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November 19, 2009

Early Trades a Sign of More Deals to Come This Offseason

It may not be easy to accept, but the 2009 baseball season is over. The Yankees are back on top, Thanksgiving is just around the corner, and television commercials hawking Christmas have been on the air since the final seconds of Halloween.

Of course, that means a new baseball season is already underway. Among the major sports, baseball has the most engaging offseason, and it begins as soon as a World Series champion is crowned. In fact, the first winter deal this year took place on the travel day between the last two games of the World Series. And before the Yankees had celebrated their 27th championship with a parade in Manhattan, four noteworthy trades had gone down.

Carlos Gomez

The Tampa Bay Rays ignited the offseason activity by dealing second baseman Akinori Iwamura to the Pittsburgh Pirates on Nov. 3. The Rays had no intention of picking up Iwamura's $4.85-million option for 2010, so they moved the 30-year-old veteran for minor league reliever Jesse Chavez.

Unless the Pirates intend to part with Iwamura in another offseason deal, they will pick up his option and make him Freddy Sanchez's replacement at second base for 2010. Iwamura made a successful transition from third to second base before the 2008 season, a move that made room for top prospect Evan Longoria in the Rays lineup and contributed to their run to the World Series a year ago.

After a solid start in the first two months of 2009, Iwamura underwent surgery for a partial tear of the ACL in his left knee and missed three months. He returned to show he was healthy again in September. Iwamura has posted a decent .354 OBP in his three major league seasons in North America, and perhaps a few of the young Pirates could learn from watching him work counts. Pittsburgh has ranked near the bottom of the major leagues in OBP in recent seasons.

The Rays had one of the best bullpens in 2008, when it allowed a major league-low .220 OBA and .309 opponent OBP. The pen ranked in the middle of the big league pack last season, and Chavez could be in the 2010 mix. The 26-year-old right-hander, who has a solid three-pitch arsenal that he used effectively at Triple-A Indianapolis the last two summers, showed promise in his first extended stay with the Pirates in 2009. If he continues to make progress, Chavez could be a key piece in the Rays bullpen next season.

The Milwaukee Brewers and Minnesota Twins traded players coming off disappointing seasons the day after the World Series. The Twins acquired shortstop J.J. Hardy, who had batted .283-24-74 with an .821 OPS in 2008, but then struggled so much last summer that he was demoted to Triple-A Nashville in August. The Brewers picked up center fielder Carlos Gomez, a tools-rich prospect who already is among the best defensive players in the game.

The problem is the free-swinging Gomez looks as though he'll never convert his promise into productivity at the plate. He hit .229/.287/.339 in 2009, which is not far off his career numbers in two-plus seasons. The Twins are loaded with outfielders, and more often than not, Gomez found himself on the bench down the stretch. He hasn't made much progress at the plate since his arrival in Minnesota's Johan Santana trade with the Mets in February 2008, and the challenge of capitalizing on his raw talent now falls to the Brewers.

At least the Twins picked up a player who has proven he can hit major league pitching. Still, it's hard to explain how the 27-year-old Hardy, a veteran of five major league seasons, fell so far in 2009. One possibility was raised by one-time Twins catcher and former Brewers hitting coach Butch Wynegar, during a recent conversation with St. Paul Pioneer Press columnist Charley Walters. Wynegar was Milwaukee's hitting coach when Hardy arrived in the majors in 2005.

"I just don't know why he spiraled downward," Wynegar told Walters. "I don't know if he ended up getting pull-conscious or whatever. I know we went through that for the longest time with him. He showed the ability to drive the ball the other way, then got away from it until we finally got him back to it. So maybe in that ballpark in Milwaukee -- as you know, the ball jumps out of that ballpark pretty well -- maybe he got a little bit pull-conscious and never got back to his approach."

FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal and Jon Paul Morosi reported over the weekend that the Brewers wanted either Paul Maholm or Zach Duke for Hardy in trade talks with Pittsburgh before the deal with Minnesota. The Pirates said no, according to Rosenthal and Morosi, instead wanting to part with catcher Ryan Doumit for the veteran shortstop.

With Hardy landing in Minnesota, it may be the Twins will finally get a payoff on that disastrous Santana trade. At the end of August, they acquired reliever Jon Rauch from Arizona for right-hander Kevin Mulvey, one of the pitchers coming over from the Mets, and now they get Hardy. It's conceivable Hardy could move to third base if the Twins commit to re-signing Orlando Cabrera. Or Cabrera could take over at second with Hardy at short. Then again, the frugal Twins may want to spend their resources elsewhere.

Two other AL Central clubs got busy as soon as the Yankees finished off the Phillies. The Chicago White Sox picked up an inexpensive veteran in third baseman Mark Teahen. In return, they sent two infielders, Chris Getz and Josh Fields, to the Kansas City Royals.

Adding Teahen pushes Gordon Beckham, Chicago's stellar rookie, from third to second base. Drafted as a shortstop, Beckham had a terrific 2009 debut despite a move to third base, so a shift to the other side of the infield may not affect the top prospect's potent bat. The White Sox are looking to get solid production in 2010 from these two low-priced players, commodities they need after adding the big-dollar contracts of Jake Peavy and Alex Rios after the All-Star break.

J.J. Hardy

Where exactly Getz and Fields will fit in Kansas City is uncertain. Getz was Chicago's second baseman for most of 2009, but Alberto Callaspo has emerged as an everyday player there for the Royals. Plus, the Royals acquired shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt from the Mariners in July and middle infielder Mike Aviles is due back following Tommy John surgery in June. To his credit, Getz is a solid defender -- much better than Callaspo as a second baseman -- and he could be a valuable utility player. A larger role is possible if he can replicate the ability to get on base that he demonstrated in the minor leagues.

As for Fields, who was Chicago's third baseman of the future not long ago, he now must contend with Alex Gordon at third. In 2009, the 25-year-old Gordon had a terrible third season in the majors instead of a breakout year. He spent a big chunk of the summer on the disabled list and at Triple-A Omaha. Still, in light of Gordon's promise, it's unlikely Fields will take his job.

One possibility is moving Fields to the outfield, where he played 21 games and made two errors for the White Sox in 2007. Wherever Fields plays defensively, his career splits in 204 major league games suggest he might be a valuable platoon player facing left-handed pitching. He turns 27 in December, so he needs to show soon that he can hit right-handers if he wants to be an everyday player.

As for the trade that moved Jeremy Hermida from Florida to Boston early in the month, one team's high-dollar investment is another teams' bargain-basement pickup. The 25-year-old outfielder made $2.25 million in 2009, and the Marlins didn't want to take on the higher salary that he is likely to receive via salary arbitration. The left-handed hitter's power dropped off for a second straight season last summer, when he batted .259/.348/.392 with 13 home runs and 47 RBIs in 129 games.

Hermida, a former first-round draft pick who hasn't been as productive as anticipated, was among the Marlins' best-paid players in 2009. He didn't fit Florida's mold of an underpaid overachiever, but none of that will matter in Boston. Assuming the Red Sox re-sign Jason Bay or ink a high-dollar free agent to play left field, Hermida isn't a starter going into the new season, but his new team may be intrigued with his propensity to draw walks. He's still young enough that he may develop into a productive regular, and the Red Sox can afford to live with his contract and take that chance.

It was a typical trade for the Marlins, who have a long history of cashing in veterans for young pitching. They acquired a pair of minor league southpaws: 25-year-old Hunter Jones, who looks like a lefty specialist and will vie for a role in the Florida pen in the spring, and 20-year-old Jose Alvarez, who had a terrific season at short-season Class-A Lowell in 2009.

Also on the Block?

After flirting with trading ace Roy Halladay at the July trade deadline, the Toronto Blue Jays are dangling his name among major league general managers once again. There has been a lot of talk about the Phillies making another push for him, but they and the Jays didn't mesh as trading partners the last time. Negotiations centered on J.A. Happ, Kyle Drabek and Dominic Brown in July, and it would seem unlikely that any of them would be available now.

Trading a No. 1 starter is a difficult decision to make. For years, though, the Jays have struggled to compete with the Yankees and Red Sox with Halladay anchoring the rotation, and he's the one trade chip that could possibly make a dent in the status quo. In the short term, taking Halladay out of an otherwise mediocre rotation probably distances the Jays further from the AL East's elite. You have to wonder if there's a deal out there that could improve the club dramatically within the next few years.

That's the dilemma facing the Jays. Parting with Johan Santana a few years ago didn't do much for the Twins, but they had a more productive farm system and play in a much weaker division. Still, the Jays appear to be moving forward on a trade involving Halladay, who wants to change addresses. Unlike former GM J.P. Ricciardi, who had Halladay on the market last summer, new GM Alex Anthopoulos will allow interested teams a window to negotiate a contract extension with the right-hander, according to MLB.com. Such a move might improve Toronto's take in a Halladay deal.

That's not the only news on the Halladay front. There's now buzz that the World Series champion Yankees are ready to jump into the Halladay sweepstakes. It's possible we could be in for another Yankees-Red Sox showdown for a player's services, similar to when the two clubs pursued a trade for Alex Rodriguez six years ago.

Forever in a cost-cutting mood, the Florida Marlins are looking to deal slugging second baseman Dan Uggla. The 29-year-old veteran, who has averaged 30 home runs and 90 RBIs a year over his four big league seasons, was a bargain at $5.35 million in 2009. He's up for a raise this winter after a .243-31-90 performance for the Marlins. According to reports, a number of teams have expressed interest in Uggla as a third baseman.

Uggla already has made it clear he wants to remain a second baseman, but he will have little bargaining power to stay at the position with his new team. Reportedly the Giants have expressed the most interest in him. However, they already have re-signed second baseman Freddy Sanchez, though the former Pirate's versatility would allow for a move to third to accommodate Uggla. There are reports that the Braves and Orioles are in the mix, too. Obviously the Orioles already have a second sacker in top-flight leadoff man Brian Roberts.

Another team that appears to be in salary-dumping mode is the Detroit Tigers, who apparently are discussing both center fielder Curtis Granderson and starting pitcher Edwin Jackson to interested parties. After the Tigers had one of the game's highest payrolls and blew a seven-game lead in the AL Central over the final four weeks of the 2009 season, are they looking to downsize over the winter? On Wednesday, GM Dave Dombrowski told The Detroit News that trade talks are not part of "any kind of fire sale or salary dump."

Reportedly the Cubs and Angels are interested in putting together a package of prospects for Granderson, and the Mariners may be interested in both veterans. One trade scenario, discussed by a number or sources, has Granderson targeted by the Angels to play left field alongside his good friend, center fielder Torii Hunter. The Angels certainly have the young talent to make a deal happen, though a host of teams may work their way into the mix for Granderson if Dombrowski is serious about moving his center fielder.

It may seem odd that Jackson might be available after he was 13-9 with a 3.62 ERA in his first season in Detroit. His $2.2-million salary was very reasonable, especially compared to some of the older, overpriced veterans on the club, but most of them are not tradeable. The Tigers may be looking to sell high on the 26-year-old right-hander, who is due for a substantial raise coming off his best season.

Dombrowski may have doubts about Jackson building on his 2009 performance, considering the pitcher's marked dropoff after the All-Star break. In his final 12 outings from the start of August through the end of the season, Jackson was 6-4 with a 5.45 ERA and .290 OBA. Milwaukee GM Doug Melvin recently expressed interest in Jackson. The Brewers have a glut of infielders, but may lack the young pitching that it might take to get a deal done. The Tigers may be interested in infield help, something the Brewers can offer.

Two weeks ago, Toronto first baseman Lyle Overbay was rumored to be headed for Arizona, in exchange for Diamondbacks catcher Chris Snyder. Apparently that deal fell though, ending the possibility of Overbay returning to his original team, but it's likely the Blue Jays are still looking to open up first base for Adam Lind. One reported suitor for the veteran first baseman is the Mariners. Other teams that may have an opening at first include the Orioles, A's, Rangers and Mets.

Snyder is expendable with the emergence of catching prospect Miguel Montero in 2009. Snyder is signed for two more seasons for roughly $11 million, so he's no bargain, especially as a backup catcher. He underwent back surgery in September, and that may make a team skittish to acquire him over the winter.

Then there's bad boy Milton Bradley, who the Cubs are looking to move after the first year of a three-year deal. The Cubs probably will have to eat a large chunk of the $20 million remaining on the outfielder's contract, or they must find a team also looking to dump a high-dollar player. Bradley probably would come with more baggage than any player a trade partner might be offering, but apparently there are interested parties.

The Rangers and Rays reportedly have shown a great deal of interest, and some of the trade pitches apparently have involved a third team. It's understandable that the Rangers might be willing to take on Bradley, who had a terrific season with Texas in 2008. A return to Texas wouldn't be a reunion with Rudy Jaramillo, the long-time Rangers hitting coach. Jaramillo, one of the more respected hitting instructors in the game, has left the Rangers and joined the coaching staff of the Cubs.

Thom Henninger is a senior writer at STATS LLC. Over the years he has served as an editor and contributed to The Scouting Notebook and numerous STATS publications. You can reach him at henninger@stats.com.