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October 27, 2009

A-Rod, Howard Lead MLB's Best into 2009 World Series

It will be the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Yankees squaring off in the 2009 World Series. The Phillies are looking to repeat, becoming the first team to win consecutive World Series since the Yankees nine years ago.

The matchup features two of the game's premier run producers in Ryan Howard and Alex Rodriguez. Both have already made their mark this October, tying a major league record that has stood for nearly 80 years. Both Howard and Rodriguez recorded at least one RBI in each of their first eight postseason games, matching Yankees Hall of Famer Lou Gehrig, who set the standard for consecutive games with an RBI during New York sweeps of the 1928 and 1932 World Series.

Alex Rodriguez

The playoffs have been A-Rod's stage this October. He's hit safely in all nine games the Yankees have played, and he's batting a major league-leading .438 (14-for-32) with five home runs and 12 RBIs. He's drawn nine walks -- many of them all but intentional, even when the bases were empty -- and he's scored 10 runs. No one has tallied more runs, hits, home runs or walks in the playoffs.

Rodriguez has rebounded from a recent 9-for-61 skid (.148) in postseason action, dating to Game 4 of the 2004 ALCS. That was the beginning of New York's unprecedented crash and burn after winning the first three games of the series from the Boston Red Sox. A-Rod has buried all talk of his long stretch of postseason futility this fall. Even Boston's ALCS comeback is a distant memory right now, as the Yankees await their first World Series appearance since 2003.

Certainly the Twins won't forget Rodriguez anytime soon. He touched Minnesota closer Joe Nathan for a two-run, game-tying homer in the ninth inning of Game 2 of the ALDS. The Twins were on the verge of tying the series at a game apiece, but A-Rod forced extra innings and Mark Teixeira hit the game-winning home run in the 11th to put the Yankees in control. Rodriguez also had three RBI singles through the first two games, all with two out.

A-Rod was at it again in another pivotal Game 2, this time against the Angels in the ALCS. With the Angels leading 3-2 after scoring in the top of the 11th inning, putting them in position to leave the Bronx with a split, Rodriguez led off the bottom half with a bomb off Los Angeles closer Brian Fuentes. Two innings later, the Yankees claimed a 4-3 victory on a game-ending error by Maicer Izturis.

In New York's ALCS-clinching win on Sunday night, Rodriguez drew a bases-loaded walk to get back in the RBI column again after finally being held without a ribbie in Game 5. It'll be interesting to see if the Phillies work around him as much as the Angels did.

As for Howard, his streak of eight games with an RBI stalled in Philadelphia's NLCS-clinching victory over the Los Angeles Dodgers. An eight-game hitting streak also came to an end in the series finale. By then, though, the big first baseman had driven in 14 runs, the most of any player in the postseason. He's batting .355 heading into the World Series, with four doubles, a triple and two homers among his 11 hits.

Ryan Howard

The highlights of his October include a game-winning sacrifice fly in the ninth inning of a pivotal Game 3 in Philadelphia's NLDS with Colorado. After the win gave the Phillies a two-games-to-one lead in the series, Howard delivered a two-run, ninth-inning double the following night. His two-out drive to right field erased a 4-2 deficit, and he came around to score the series-clinching run when Jayson Werth singled to center field.

Howard led all hitters with eight RBIs in the five-game NLCS. Although the ALCS went six games, no one playing in either series could match Howard's total.

The Phillies slugger looks to continue his run production in Wednesday's Game 1 against Yankees ace CC Sabathia. Howard was 2-for-4 against the big left-hander in a 4-3 extra-inning victory over the Yankees on May 24. The Phillies took two of three games in the interleague series, though Howard's two hits off Sabathia were his only ones in 14 at-bats. He's 3-for-9 with four strikeouts all-time facing Sabathia, including playoff action.

Over his career, Howard hasn't had much success against other key members of the Yankees rotation. He's 1-for-9 against Andy Pettitte, and just 2-for-12 with six strikeouts facing A.J. Burnett. Howard's two hits off Burnett, however, are home runs.

If history means anything, A-Rod can look forward to facing the Phillies in the Fall Classic. He's fared well against most of Philadelphia's pitchers, including staff ace and Game 1 starter Cliff Lee. During Lee's tenure with Cleveland, A-Rod was 5-for-15 with a pair of homers and six RBIs against the southpaw.

Rodriguez also has a pair of homers in just seven at-bats off Phillies starter Joe Blanton. In addition, he has a single, a double and three walks facing the right-hander. Against Pedro Martinez, Rodriguez is a .291 hitter, though he's displayed little power in his 55 at-bats against the former Red Sox ace. He's 3-for-6 with a two doubles and a homer against Brett Myers.

The sample size is small, but Phillies closer Brad Lidge hasn't fooled Rodriguez in their three matchups. A-Rod has a double and home run facing Lidge, and he made his mark on the closer's blown-saves total earlier this season. In New York's one win over the Phillies in May, Rodriguez erased a two-run deficit with a game-tying home run in the ninth off Lidge. Before the inning was over, the Yankees had claimed a 5-4 victory on an RBI single from Melky Cabrera.

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel isn't known to pitch around dangerous hitters, so A-Rod, playing in his first World Series, presents a big challenge for the Philadelphia rotation. The one Phillies starter who has solved him, though in limited action, is left-hander Cole Hamels. A-Rod is 0-for-4 with four strikeouts facing him, though he does have a walk and a hit-by-pitch in six plate appearances.

Cleveland's Contribution to the Fall Classic

Game 1 features two Cy Young Award winners in Sabathia and Lee. It will mark the sixth time that two Cy Young honorees will face off in the World Series, with the last matchup being Atlanta's John Smoltz and the Yankees' Roger Clemens in Game 4 of the 1999 Fall Classic.

Four of the five previous instances involve the Braves. In 1996, Tom Glavine and New York's David Cone squared off in Game 3. A year earlier, it was Greg Maddux's turn, when he twice faced Cleveland's Orel Hershiser, who followed the path of Sabathia and Lee by winning the award in the other league before pitching for Cleveland in the World Series.

What makes the Sabathia-Lee matchup unique, of course, is that both won their Cy Young awards with Cleveland. Both were with the Indians as recently as July 2008, when Sabathia, the reigning AL Cy Young winner at the time, was dealt to Milwaukee. Lee, acquired by the Phillies on July 29, won Cy Young honors last season.

There's another twist to the Cleveland angle. Only one other time has Game 1 featured two starting pitchers who were on the same team within two years of their World Series matchup. That was Game 1 of the 2005 World Series between the White Sox and Astros.

Chicago called on Jose Contreras, who was acquired from the Yankees at the July trade deadline in 2004. Prior to that season, Clemens had left the Yankees to sign a free-agent contract with Houston. Contreras pitched into the eighth inning of Chicago's 5-3 victory, while Clemens, who had been battling a hamstring problem throughout the fall, left after two frames.

Phillies Need Rebound from 2008 World Series MVP

With the Phillies getting nearly a week off, the only drama in their camp has been who would start Game 2 in the Bronx: Cole Hamels or Pedro Martinez. The obvious answer would seem to be Martinez, who has a history of success at Yankee Stadium and has pitched some big games against the Yankees. He did get the nod on Tuesday, and perhaps manager Charlie Manuel was simply keeping his decision to himself.

After all, Hamels has struggled down the stretch. He's 1-3 with a 6.89 ERA and .317 OBA in his last six starts, going back to Sept 23. His one win was in the opening game of the NLCS, an 8-6 victory in which he allowed four runs and eight hits in 5.1 innings -- and nearly surrendered an early 5-1 lead to the Dodgers.

Hamels has allowed six home runs in three postseason starts, three of them in his last outing in Game 5 of the NLCS. Three of those six longballs have been to left-handed hitters James Loney and Andre Ethier, and lefties are batting .600 (9-for-15) against him in the playoffs. That doesn't bode well for Hamels facing the Yankees, who could make the likes of Johnny Damon, Hideki Matsui and Robinson Cano look like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig and Mickey Mantle. The Yankees already have Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Derek Jeter.

On top of that, Hamels has been markedly better at home this season. Including the playoffs, he is 7-6 with a 4.00 ERA at Citizens Bank Park, and 4-6 with a 5.09 mark in all other venues. Opponents are batting .310 and slugging .487 against him in their own ballparks.

If the World Series goes seven games, Hamels probably still gets a pressure-packed start at Yankee Stadium. If everyone starts on normal rest, the southpaw projects to pitch Game 7. Maybe Lee will return on three days' rest to pitch Game 4, but then Manuel faces the decision whether to start the 38-year-old Martinez in Game 5 after just three days off. That's where a fourth starter may slide in and set up a possible Game 7 start for Hamels. Still, giving Martinez the Game 2 assignment at the Stadium allows Hamels to make one of his starts at home.

The kind of weather that we can expect in late October might alter the schedule. And maybe the debate is moot. There hasn't been a World Series Game 7 since 2002, and there hasn't even been a Game 6 since 2003.

Phils Finally Go Back to Work

The Phillies are in the midst of six days off before Game 1. Going into the 2007 World Series, the Colorado Rockies were on a 21-1 surge before sitting for eight days and were swept by the Boston Red Sox. Time off worked against the hottest team in baseball that fall, and it could be detrimental to the Phillies, who have won six of their last seven games.

Since the LCS was added to the postseason in 1969, Philadelphia is the fifth team to sit for six or more days before the start of the World Series. The 2007 Rockies were the most recent team to endure such a layoff, and their eight days of rest and relaxation are the most in this era. Clearly the downtime was a disaster for Colorado.

In 2006, the Detroit Tigers lost their playoff opener in the Bronx, then swept the Yankees and Oakland out of the playoffs. They waited six days to face the St. Louis Cardinals, who needed seven games to eliminate the Mets in the NLCS and had one day off before Game 1 in Detroit. The Tigers managed just four hits off Cardinals rookie Anthony Reyes, who went eight innings in a 7-2 victory. The Tigers bounced back in Game 2 at home, but then lost three in a row in St. Louis.

A decade earlier in 1996, the Yankees lost just once in the ALDS and ALCS and had six days off before facing Atlanta in the World Series. The Braves swept their NLDS after winning the first two games in Los Angeles. They fell behind three games to one in the NLCS, but won a dramatic seven-game series over St. Louis. After two days off, the Braves extended their winning streak to five by taking the first two games from the Yankees in Atlanta. The well-rested Yankees managed just four hits and a single run in Game 1, while the Braves scored 12 times off Andy Pettitte and four New York relievers. The Yankees bounced back, however, winning the next four games to secure a six-game Series.

The previous fall, it was the Braves who waited six days to start World Series play. They won six of seven games to advance and swept Cincinnati in the NLCS. Cleveland needed six games to bounce Seattle in the ALCS, though the Indians still managed four days off before the World Series opener. Atlanta picked up just three hits in Game 1 after the six-day layoff, but Greg Maddux outdueled Orel Hershiser in a matchup of Cy Young winners for a 3-2 victory. The Braves also won Game 2 behind a strong outing from Tom Glavine, and they went on to claim a six-game affair that was the only World Series triumph of the 1990s Braves.

History suggests the long layoff may impact Game 1 of the World Series on Wednesday, when the Phillies will try to solve Sabathia. It's less likely, however, to work against the Phillies over the course of the Series, though the possibility remains.

The downtime probably will have less long-term impact on a club looking to repeat as World Series champs, compared to the young, upstart Rockies, who were making their first playoff appearance in a dozen years in 2007. Although losing Game 1 to the talented Yankees isn't the preferred way to start the Series, the offensive production of this deep Philadelphia lineup shouldn't suffer from the additional rest.

"Thom's Take" goes monthly for the winter, with the next installment appearing on Nov. 19.

Thom Henninger is a senior writer at STATS LLC. Over the years he has served as an editor and contributed to The Scouting Notebook and numerous STATS publications. You can reach him at henninger@stats.com.