Closers continue to remain unsettled in fantasy drafts

By GREG AMBROSIUS

(AP) -- NORTHBROOK, Ill. (STATS) - When the Houston Astros announced Tuesday that Brett Myers would be their new closer, it showed just how fluid that role can be. Here you had a No. 3 starting pitcher with minimal value suddenly becoming a fantasy game changer.

And it was further proof that, for so many teams, anyone can end up being the guy trying to get the last three outs.

No one saw the switch coming. Certainly not fantasy baseball owners, who study rotations and bullpens religiously. In the NFBC, Myers had an Average Draft Position of 335 and he ranked 87th among all starters. Now he has to move into the top 180 overall and among the top 25 closers.

All of a sudden, Brett Myers has significant value.

That's how it works with closers. Today's stars are tomorrow's bums and vice versa. It's easily the most fluid and frustrating position in fantasy baseball.

For further proof, look back a year ago. The top drafted closer in 2011 was Carlos Marmol. And that was hardly the only bad miscalculation. Only five of the top 10 from a year ago are back in the same grouping this year, and some of them - Neftali Feliz and Francisco Rodriguez - aren't even closers anymore.

As it turned out, the best closer of 2011 was the 18th one picked on draft day. Craig Kimbrel is the man to get in 2012, yet he didn't go until 164th overall last year. This year his ADP is 66, and the next closer being selected in NFBC drafts is Mariano Rivera at 97. That's a huge gap, and one we certainly haven't seen among the top two in a while.

Kimbrel's MLB-best 46 saves, 127 strikeouts and 2.10 ERA are all very impressive from his Rookie of the Year season, but can we trust anyone in such a volatile position to repeat that type of performance?

Outside of Kimbrel, there's very little change in closer value from 2011 to 2012. Five years ago, NFBC owners used to take them in the top 60, but no more. They've been burned enough to stay away until around pick 100. Only Kimbrel, Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon (98) are now going before then. After that, you can mix and match 20 in the next 75 picks and half of them will probably fail.

Let's take a look at the top 25 closers being drafted in the NFBC and their ADPs:

- 1. Craig Kimbrel (66)

- 2. Mariano Rivera (97)

- 3. Jonathan Papelbon (98)

- 4. John Axford (108)

- 5. Drew Storen (109)

- 6. Heath Bell (118)

- 7. JJ Putz (129)

- 8. Jose Valverde (131)

- 9. Joel Hanrahan (132)

- 10. Brian Wilson (134)

- 11. Joakim Soria (136)

- 12. Ryan Madson (137)

- 13. Andrew Bailey (141)

- 14. Sergio Santos (144)

- 15. Jordan Walden (150)

- 16. Jason Motte (156)

- 17. Carlos Marmol (163)

- 18. Brandon League (165)

- 19. Huston Street (168)

- 20. Joe Nathan (169)

- 21. Chris Perez (170)

- 22. Kenley Jansen (171)

- 23. Kyle Farnsworth (177)

- 24. Rafael Betancourt (181)

- 25. Frank Francisco (200)

This list looks nothing like last year's, but we should be used to that. The names and numbers change every year, except for Rivera. He's been the one constant at this position, but, at age 42, he could be staring at his last season in pinstripes. Here were last year's Top 20:

- 1. Marmol (81)

- 2. Bell (87)

- 3. Soria (88)

- 4. Wilson (90)

- 5. Feliz (95)

- 6. Rivera (101)

- 7. Papelbon (110)

- 8. K-Rod (120)

- 9. Axford (121)

-10. Matt Thornton (135)

- 11. Perez (136)

- 12. Jonathan Broxton (138)

- 13. Valverde (142)

- 14. Street (145)

- 15. Nathan (155)

- 16. Bailey (158)

- 17. Putz (160)

- 18. Kimbrell (164)

- 19. Francisco Cordero (168)

- 20. Ryan Franklin (174)

Interestingly, the high picks this year were the value picks from 2011. Drew Storen was picked 186th overall a year ago and is now in the top 110. The same value was found with Hanrahan (180 last year), Putz (160), Madson (317), Santos (677), Walden (420), Motte (394) and Jansen (472).

Is there similar value out there this year? It's always possible. Addison Reed is going 260th overall and outside of the top 30 among closers, yet could easily unseat Matt Thornton at some point in Chicago. The Dodgers may start out the season with a bullpen-by-committee, but Jansen looks like the one to get ahead of Javy Guerra (252).

Betancourt is an unknown in his new role, but he seems to have the fastball to lock down saves in Colorado and he's being drafted 24th among closers. In Oakland, Brian Fuentes and Joey Devine are fighting for that job and one of them could be a bargain pickup.

Unlike some leagues, in the NFBC, it's impossible to win the $100,000 grand prize by punting saves, so you must find value at the position. In 2012, that value may be found in the likes of Jansen, Walden, Motte, Betancourt and Reed. The smart money would say to grab a top closer and one of these lower value picks, but grabbing two of these lower-tier closers and adding someone like Reed later could be a successful strategy.

If you're looking for real sleepers - closers who could emerge after Opening Day - don't lose sight of Broxton in Kansas City, or even Francisco Rodriguez. The Brewers will be trying to deal K-Rod all year and some team may need someone to fill the role midseason. Also keep an eye on Vinnie Pestano, who could start the year as Cleveland's ninth-inning guy while Chris Perez recovers from an oblique injury. He throws hard, has experience in the role and could keep the job if he starts out hot. You just never know.

It's a gamble to avoid top closers, but every time you pick one the odds are almost the same that he'll fail. With any luck, you'll own a mediocre starter like Myers who suddenly brings you valuable fantasy points. Those are the type of breaks every fantasy team could use to be successful.

Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame and the Fantasy Sports Trade Association's Hall of Fame. For more information on the NFBC, contact him at gambrosius@stats.com mailto:gambrosius@stats.com> or go to nfbc.stats.com.

Updated March 2, 2012