As spring training beckons, ADPs begin to take shape

By GREG AMBROSIUS

(AP) -- NORTHBROOK, Ill. (STATS) - One of the best pre-draft references for the discerning fantasy owner these days is getting your hands on the Average Draft Positions (ADP) from an existing pay league. In the past, mock draft sites gave a good idea where players would generally be selected, but now contest sites like the National Fantasy Baseball Championship are generating more accurate consensus-driven analytics and tracking.

Plus, if you're getting your information from high-stakes leagues (participants pay between $125 and $1,000 per entry in the NFBC), you know these guys must know what they're talking about if they're putting their money where their mouth is.

While ADPs are a great pre-draft source, they certainly are no guarantee for instant success. More than half the players in the Top 15 now will likely not be among the Top 15 producers when 2012 is done. In fact, only eight of last year's Top 15 are repeats this year: Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera, Troy Tulowitzki, Adrian Gonzalez, Joey Votto, Robinson Cano, Carlos Gonzalez and Evan Longoria.

Nineteen of this year's Top 30 were in the Top 30 last year.

Some unknowns prior to 2011 are emerging in 2012. After starting last season in Triple-A, Brett Lawrie's ADP is currently 44. He's being drafted ahead of Alex Rodriguez, and rightly so. Desmond Jennings has an ADP of 55 and keeps rising with each draft, having gone 45th and 47th in the last two.

Other trends to follow:

- Ryan Braun was a potential Top 3 pick before news of his possible 50-game suspension. His ADP dropped to 41, but since rumors came out that his suspension may be lessened or nullified, his ADP has jumped to 30 and he's now going in the Top 25 in many recent drafts. The final verdict should come next week, and will no doubt alter the first three rounds of every draft around the country - not to mention Milwaukee's on-field fortunes.

- While no starting pitcher is going in the first round, you'll find as many as five going in the second: Clayton Kershaw, Justin Verlander, Roy Halladay, Tim Lincecum and Cliff Lee. It's possible that 11 starting pitchers could go in the Top 50 this year, a new trend following the Year of the Pitcher.

- Carl Crawford has an ADP of 31, but since announcing his wrist injury he's been going anywhere from 47th to 70th. His stock is on the decline and could fall out of the Top 40 very soon.

There are countless trends to follow from these pay leagues, but the best place to start is with a basic Top 100. The first round has been pretty much established with the 15 players below and even the Top 30 looks pretty set. Take a look at our Top 100, and, barring major news or injury, be prepared for similar results when you sit down at the draft table next month:

- 1. Matt Kemp

- 2. Albert Pujols

- 3. Miguel Cabrera

- 4. Troy Tulowitzki

- 5. Jacoby Ellsbury

- 6. Adrian Gonzalez

- 7. Jose Bautista

- 8. Joey Votto

- 9. Robinson Cano

- 10. Carlos Gonzalez

- 11. Justin Upton

- 12. Prince Fielder

- 13. Evan Longoria

- 14. Curtis Granderson

- 15. Dustin Pedroia

- 16. Clayton Kershaw

- 17. Hanley Ramirez

- 18. Ian Kinsler

- 19. Justin Verlander

- 20. Roy Halladay

- 21. Mark Teixeira

- 22. Jose Reyes

- 23. Andrew McCutchen

- 24. Mike Stanton

- 25. David Wright

- 26. Cliff Lee

- 27. Josh Hamilton

- 28. Adrian Beltre

- 29. Tim Lincecum

- 30. Ryan Braun

- 31. Carl Crawford

- 32. Matt Holliday

- 33. Hunter Pence

- 34. Felix Hernandez

- 35. Carlos Santana

- 36. CC Sabathia

- 37. Ryan Zimmerman

- 38. Mike Napoli

- 39. Jered Weaver

- 40. Cole Hamels

- 41. Eric Hosmer

- 42. B.J. Upton

- 43. Nelson Cruz

- 44. Brett Lawrie

- 45. Pablo Sandoval

- 46. Elvis Andrus

- 47. Jay Bruce

- 48. David Price

- 49. Dan Haren

- 50. Michael Bourn

- 51. Zack Greinke

- 52. Asdrubal Cabrera

- 53. Starlin Castro

- 54. Alex Rodriguez

- 55. Desmond Jennings

- 56. Dan Uggla

- 57. Stephen Strasburg

- 58. Ben Zobrist

- 59. Brian McCann

- 60. Jon Lester

- 61. Michael Young

- 62. Alex Gordon

- 63. Aramis Ramirez

- 64. Brandon Phillips

- 65. Yovani Gallardo

- 66. Craig Kimbrel

- 67. Ian Kennedy

- 68. Jimmy Rollins

- 69. Kevin Youkilis

- 70. Buster Posey

- 71. James Shields

- 72. Michael Morse

- 73. C.J. Wilson

- 74. Shane Victorino

- 75. Matt Cain

- 76. Shin-Soo Choo

- 77. Paul Konerko

- 78. Chase Utley

- 79. Matt Wieters

- 80. Joe Mauer

- 81. Brett Gardner

- 82. Rickie Weeks

- 83. Madison Bumgarner

- 84. Howie Kendrick

- 85. Adam Jones

- 86. Miguel Montero

- 87. Adam Wainwright

- 88. Michael Pineda

- 89. Matt Moore

- 90. Lance Berkman

- 91. Mat Latos

- 92. Corey Hart

- 93. John Johnson

- 94. Drew Stubbs

- 95. Mark Reynolds

- 96. Mariano Rivera

- 97. Alex Avila

- 98. Gio Gonzalez

- 99. J.J. Hardy

- 100. Alexei Ramirez

Greg Ambrosius is the founder of the National Fantasy Baseball Championship and a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association Hall of Fame and the Fantasy Sports Trade Association's Hall of Fame. For more information on the NFBC, contact him at gambrosius@stats.com mailto:gambrosius@stats.com> or go to nfbc.stats.com.

Updated February 17, 2012